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The One Ring: Adventures over the Edge of the Wild» Forums » Rules

Subject: Doing some Task Chances analysis... rss

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William Hostman
United States
Eagle River
Alaska
designer
Gaming in Greater Anchorage area, Alaska since 1978. Looking for Indy-willing RPG players in Eagle River (or willing to drive to Eagle River). Geekmail me if interested.
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Yes, this really is what I looked like when I uploaded that avatar. Not that it's quite current anymore.
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Here's the basic data:

Percent chance of meet-or-beat TN on N dice - not exhausted
TN____0________1________2________3________4________5________6____
_0__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_1___91.667__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_2___83.333___98.611__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_3___75.000___95.833___99.769__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_4___66.667___91.667___99.074___99.961__100.000__100.000__100.000
_5___58.333___86.111___97.685___99.807___99.994__100.000__100.000
_6___50.000___79.167___95.370___99.421___99.961___99.999__100.000
_7___41.667___70.833___91.898___98.650___99.865___99.992__100.000
_8___33.333___62.500___87.037___97.299___99.640___99.970___99.999
_9___25.000___54.167___81.019___95.139___99.190___99.910___99.994
10___16.667___45.833___74.074___92.014___98.380___99.775___99.979
11____8.333___37.500___66.435___87.847___97.055___99.505___99.941
12____8.333___29.167___58.333___82.639___95.062___99.015___99.859
13____8.333___22.222___50.000___76.466___92.265___98.199___99.695
14____8.333___16.667___41.898___69.483___88.567___96.932___99.396
15____8.333___12.500___34.259___61.960___83.931___95.086___98.889
16____8.333____9.722___27.315___54.167___78.401___92.543___98.085
17____8.333____8.333___21.296___46.373___72.094___89.214___96.880
18____8.333____8.333___16.435___38.850___65.181___85.053___95.165
19____8.333____8.333___12.963___31.867___57.883___80.073___92.838
20____8.333____8.333___10.648___25.694___50.450___74.343___89.817
21____8.333____8.333____9.259___20.486___43.152___67.990___86.052
22____8.333____8.333____8.565___16.319___36.240___61.194___81.536
23____8.333____8.333____8.333___13.194___29.932___54.167___76.311
24____8.333____8.333____8.333___11.034___24.402___47.140___70.470
25____8.333____8.333____8.333____9.684___19.766___40.343___64.151
26____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.912___16.069___33.990___57.529
27____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.526___13.272___28.260___50.804
28____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.372___11.278___23.280___44.182
29____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____9.954___19.120___37.863
30____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____9.144___15.790___32.022
31____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.693___13.247___26.797
32____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.468___11.402___22.281
33____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.372___10.135___18.516
34____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.340____9.318___15.496
35____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.828___13.169
36____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.558___11.453
37____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.423___10.248
38____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.363____9.444
39____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.341____8.938
40____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.334____8.639
41____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.475
42____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.392
43____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.355
44____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.340
45____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.335
46____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.334


And for exhausted:
TN____0________1________2________3________4________5________6____
_0__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_1___91.667___95.833___97.917___98.958___99.479___99.740___99.870
_2___83.333___91.667___95.833___97.917___98.958___99.479___99.740
_3___75.000___87.500___93.750___96.875___98.438___99.219___99.609
_4___66.667___83.333___91.667___95.833___97.917___98.958___99.479
_5___58.333___77.778___88.194___93.750___96.701___98.264___99.089
_6___50.000___70.833___83.333___90.625___94.792___97.135___98.438
_7___41.667___62.500___77.083___86.458___92.188___95.573___97.526
_8___33.333___54.167___70.833___82.292___89.583___94.010___96.615
_9___25.000___45.833___64.352___77.778___86.632___92.159___95.486
10___16.667___37.500___57.407___72.569___82.986___89.728___93.924
11____8.333___29.167___49.769___66.319___78.299___86.429___91.710
12____8.333___25.000___43.750___60.417___73.438___82.813___89.193
13____8.333___20.833___37.500___54.128___68.152___78.810___86.362
14____8.333___16.667___31.250___47.724___62.635___74.518___83.242
15____8.333___12.500___25.000___41.088___56.655___69.647___79.543
16____8.333____9.722___20.139___35.224___50.829___64.535___75.429
17____8.333____8.333___16.667___30.170___45.229___59.262___70.973
18____8.333____8.333___14.583___26.042___40.066___54.070___66.392
19____8.333____8.333___12.500___21.875___34.761___48.621___61.473
20____8.333____8.333___10.648___18.056___29.700___43.203___56.385
21____8.333____8.333____9.259___14.931___25.212___38.058___51.270
22____8.333____8.333____8.565___12.847___21.663___33.519___46.404
23____8.333____8.333____8.333___11.458___18.744___29.381___41.683
24____8.333____8.333____8.333___10.455___16.223___25.533___37.082
25____8.333____8.333____8.333____9.568___13.927___21.909___32.602
26____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.912___12.095___18.810___28.535
27____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.526___10.802___16.338___24.995
28____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.372____9.979___14.428___21.953
29____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____9.414___12.856___19.232
30____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.989___11.535___16.810
31____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.668___10.471___14.745
32____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.468____9.714___13.119
33____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.372____9.219___11.880
34____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.340____8.900___10.920
35____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.678___10.150
36____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.521____9.547
37____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.418____9.110
38____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.363____8.820
39____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.341____8.637
40____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.334____8.517
41____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.436
42____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.384
43____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.354
44____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.340
45____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.335
46____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.333____8.334


And the quality results chances, ignoring successes:
TN____0________1________2________3________4________5________6____
_0__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_1____0.000___16.667___30.556___42.130___51.775___59.812___66.510
_2____0.000____0.000____2.778____7.407___13.194___19.624___26.322
_3____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.463____1.620____3.549____6.229
_4____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.077____0.334____0.870
_5____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.013____0.066
_6____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.002
_7____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000____0.000



Noting the 1/12 minimum chance if the GM lets you roll at all...
And ignoring the spend a hope to add Stat... I think the difficulty labels are about few points too high...

It's interesting to note that quality is unaffected by exhaustion, and strongly limited by skill.

I'll post a graph later...
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  • Last edited Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:15 pm (Total Number of Edits: 1)
  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:08 pm
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William Hostman
United States
Eagle River
Alaska
designer
Gaming in Greater Anchorage area, Alaska since 1978. Looking for Indy-willing RPG players in Eagle River (or willing to drive to Eagle River). Geekmail me if interested.
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Yes, this really is what I looked like when I uploaded that avatar. Not that it's quite current anymore.
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And the python source I used to do the math:

zg=[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
yg=[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]
ng=0
w=0
for a in [0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,46]:
for b in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
for c in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
for d in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
for e in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
for f in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
for g in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
for h in [1,2,3,4,5,6]:
ng+= 1;
w= a + b + c + d + e + f + g + h
if (w >= 46):
w = 46
zg[w] += 1
t = 0
if b >= 6:
t+=1
if c >= 6:
t+=1
if d >= 6:
t+=1
if e >= 6:
t+=1
if f >= 6:
t+=1
if g >= 6:
t+=1
if h >= 6:
t+=1
yg[t]+=1
print "one ring dice - 7 skill"
for a in range(0,47,1):
print a,"\t",zg[a],"\t",((100 * zg[a])/ng)
print "-----"


Note that for a die not used, change the arrays for b,c,d,e,f,g, &or h from [1,2,3,4,5,6] to [0], and for exhausted, change the range from [1,2,3,4,5,6] to [0,0,0,4,5,6] for all dice in use.
 
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  • Last edited Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:18 pm (Total Number of Edits: 1)
  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:10 pm
    • Choose your Dice
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      • Comment (Optional)
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William Hostman
United States
Eagle River
Alaska
designer
Gaming in Greater Anchorage area, Alaska since 1978. Looking for Indy-willing RPG players in Eagle River (or willing to drive to Eagle River). Geekmail me if interested.
badge
Yes, this really is what I looked like when I uploaded that avatar. Not that it's quite current anymore.
Avatar
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Same format table, but chances for...

Not exhausted, has reroll & keep better from Virtue or Culture Bonus
TN____0________1________2________3________4________5________6____
_0__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_1___84.028__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_2___69.444___84.606__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_3___56.250___67.824___97.434__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_4___44.444___51.042___91.860___99.572__100.000__100.000__100.000
_5___34.028___34.259___83.507___98.180___99.929__100.000__100.000
_6___25.000___17.477___72.377___95.399___99.620___99.988__100.000
_7___17.361____0.694___58.468___90.766___98.847___99.924___99.998
_8___11.111____0.579___41.782___83.819___97.304___99.731___99.985
_9____6.250____0.463___27.874___74.093___94.603___99.281___99.940
10____2.778____0.347___16.744___62.516___90.281___98.380___99.820
11____0.694____0.231____8.391___50.013___84.108___96.760___99.550
12____0.694____0.116____2.816___37.510___76.082___94.123___99.010
13____0.694____0.116____0.019___25.932___66.437___90.201___98.032
14____0.694____0.116____0.019___16.207___55.634___84.800___96.412
15____0.694____0.116____0.019____9.262___44.368___77.855___93.924
16____0.694____0.116____0.019____4.633___33.565___69.483___90.353
17____0.694____0.116____0.019____1.855___23.920___60.031___85.537
18____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.466___15.896___50.000___79.415
19____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____9.723___39.969___72.061
20____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____5.402___30.517___63.690
21____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____2.701___22.145___54.643
22____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____1.158___15.201___45.358
23____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.386____9.799___36.310
24____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.078____5.877___27.939
25____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____3.241___20.585
26____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____1.620___14.463
27____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.720____9.647
28____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.270____6.076
29____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.077____3.588
30____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.013____1.968
31____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.990
32____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.450
33____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.180
34____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.060
35____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.015
36____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.002
37____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
38____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
39____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
40____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
41____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
42____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
43____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
44____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
45____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
46____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000


Not Exhausted, has Roll additional and keep lower from negative distinctive feature
TN____0________1________2________3________4________5________6____
_0__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_1___84.028__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_2___69.444___84.606__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_3___56.250___67.824___97.434__100.000__100.000__100.000__100.000
_4___44.444___51.042___91.860___99.572__100.000__100.000__100.000
_5___34.028___34.259___83.507___98.180___99.929__100.000__100.000
_6___25.000___17.477___72.377___95.399___99.620___99.988__100.000
_7___17.361____0.694___58.468___90.766___98.847___99.924___99.998
_8___11.111____0.579___41.782___83.819___97.304___99.731___99.985
_9____6.250____0.463___27.874___74.093___94.603___99.281___99.940
10____2.778____0.347___16.744___62.516___90.281___98.380___99.820
11____0.694____0.231____8.391___50.013___84.108___96.760___99.550
12____0.694____0.116____2.816___37.510___76.082___94.123___99.010
13____0.694____0.116____0.019___25.932___66.437___90.201___98.032
14____0.694____0.116____0.019___16.207___55.634___84.800___96.412
15____0.694____0.116____0.019____9.262___44.368___77.855___93.924
16____0.694____0.116____0.019____4.633___33.565___69.483___90.353
17____0.694____0.116____0.019____1.855___23.920___60.031___85.537
18____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.466___15.896___50.000___79.415
19____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____9.723___39.969___72.061
20____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____5.402___30.517___63.690
21____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____2.701___22.145___54.643
22____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____1.158___15.201___45.358
23____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.386____9.799___36.310
24____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.078____5.877___27.939
25____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____3.241___20.585
26____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____1.620___14.463
27____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.720____9.647
28____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.270____6.076
29____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.077____3.588
30____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.013____1.968
31____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.990
32____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.450
33____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.180
34____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.060
35____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.015
36____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.002
37____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
38____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
39____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
40____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
41____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
42____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
43____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
44____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
45____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
46____0.694____0.116____0.019____0.003____0.001____0.000____0.000
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