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An Introduction to Probability and Statistics

This is a blog in which I intend to explain various probabilistic and statistical concepts in simple terms. Questions about probability and statistics often arise in discussions about various games, so my aim is to provide tutorials that give you sufficient information to understand these calculations and perform them yourself.
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Converting RPG Intelligence Values into IQ

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IQ has a statistical definition (in terms of a median value and standard deviation). In this article I apply this definition to the randomly generated Intelligence scores in various RPGs (original/basic D&D, Call of Cthulhu, WFRP 1&2, Rifts).


IQ (Intelligence Quotient) is a statistical measure of relative levels of intelligence within a population. It is important to note that by its definition it is not a fixed value. Any given IQ test is normalised by using a sample population that should be representative of the total population for which the test is aimed. The resultant IQ values are then set so that the median value is 100 and a single standard deviation is 15 IQ points.

So for the total population, half of the people should have an IQ of less than 100 and half should have an IQ of more than 100. If we assume a normal distribution of IQ then that means:
About 68.3% of the population have an IQ in the range of 85 to 115 (plus or minus 1 standard deviation)
About 95.4% of the population have an IQ in the range of 70 to 130 (plus or minus 2 standard deviations)
About 99.7% of the population have an IQ in the range of 55 to 145 (plus or minus 3 standard deviations)

This definition of IQ (median 100, standard deviation 15) can be directly applied to measures of intelligence in some role-playing games that have randomly generated attributes.


Original and Basic Dungeons & Dragons

"Intelligence" (Int) is determined by rolling 3d6. This has a symmetrical distribution so the median is equal to the mean of 10.5. The variance is 8.75, giving a standard deviation of approximately 2.958.


Int Prob IQ
3 0.5% 62.0
4 1.4% 67.0
5 2.8% 72.1
6 4.6% 77.2
7 6.9% 82.3
8 9.7% 87.3
9 11.6% 92.4
10 12.5% 97.5
11 12.5% 102.5
12 11.6% 107.6
13 9.7% 112.7
14 6.9% 117.7
15 4.6% 122.8
16 2.8% 127.9
17 1.4% 133.0
18 0.5% 138.0



Call of Cthulhu and Basic Role-Playing

"Intelligence" (INT) is determined by rolling 2d6+6. This has a symmetrical distribution so the median is equal to the mean of 13. The variance is 5 5/6, giving a standard deviation of approximately 2.415.


INT Prob IQ
8 2.8% 68.9
9 5.6% 75.2
10 8.3% 81.4
11 11.1% 87.6
12 13.9% 93.8
13 16.7% 100.0
14 13.9% 106.2
15 11.1% 112.4
16 8.3% 118.6
17 5.6% 124.8
18 2.8% 131.1



Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay (1st/2nd edition)

"Intelligence" (Int) is determined by rolling 2d10+20. This has a symmetrical distribution so the median is equal to the mean of 31. The variance is 16.5, giving a standard deviation of approximately 4.062.


Int Prob IQ
22 1.0% 66.8
23 2.0% 70.5
24 3.0% 74.2
25 4.0% 77.8
26 5.0% 81.5
27 6.0% 85.2
28 7.0% 88.9
29 8.0% 92.6
30 9.0% 96.3
31 10.0% 100.0
32 9.0% 103.7
33 8.0% 107.4
34 7.0% 111.1
35 6.0% 114.8
36 5.0% 118.5
37 4.0% 122.2
38 3.0% 125.8
39 2.0% 129.5
40 1.0% 133.2



Rifts

"Intelligence Quotient" (I.Q.) is determined by rolling 3d6. If the resultant score is over 15, you roll and add an additional 1d6. This has an asymmetrical distribution; in this particular case the median is equal to the mean of 3d6, which is 10.5. The variance is approximately 11.370, giving a standard deviation of approximately 3.372.


I.Q. Prob IQ
3 0.5% 65.9
4 1.4% 70.4
5 2.8% 74.8
6 4.6% 79.3
7 6.9% 83.7
8 9.7% 88.2
9 11.6% 92.6
10 12.5% 97.1
11 12.5% 101.5
12 11.6% 106.0
13 9.7% 110.4
14 6.9% 114.8
15 4.6% 119.3
16 0.0% 123.7
17 0.5% 128.2
18 0.7% 132.6
19 0.8% 137.1
20 0.8% 141.5
21 0.8% 146.0
22 0.8% 150.4
23 0.3% 154.9
24 0.1% 159.3



Rifts Chaos Earth

"Intelligence Quotient" (I.Q.) is determined by rolling 3d6. If the resultant score is over 15, you roll and add an additional 1d6. If this additional die comes up as a 6, you roll and add a fifth d6. This has an asymmetrical distribution; in this particular case the median is equal to the mean of 3d6, which is 10.5. The variance is approximately 12.126, giving a standard deviation of approximately 3.482.


I.Q. Prob IQ
3 0.5% 66.9
4 1.4% 71.2
5 2.8% 75.5
6 4.6% 79.8
7 6.9% 84.1
8 9.7% 88.4
9 11.6% 92.7
10 12.5% 97.0
11 12.5% 101.3
12 11.6% 105.6
13 9.7% 110.0
14 6.9% 114.3
15 4.6% 118.6
16 0.0% 122.9
17 0.5% 127.2
18 0.7% 131.5
19 0.8% 135.8
20 0.8% 140.1
21 0.8% 144.4
22 0.3% 148.7
23 0.2% 153.0
24 0.1% 157.3
25 0.1% 161.6
26 0.1% 166.0
27 0.1% 170.3
28 0.1% 174.6
29 0.1% 178.9
30 0.0% 183.2



Other RPGs

I am happy to entertain requests for other RPGs as well. Note that this analysis cannot be performed on systems that use fixed values or an allocation of points (since there is no probability distribution to analyse). Suitable games are listed under the Random Attribute Generation (during Character Creation) mechanic (although not all of these necessarily include an intelligence attribute).

Some specific exclusions:

Other editions of Dungeons & Dragons and Pathfinder - There are several different methods of generating ability scores. Each of these gives different median values and standard deviations. Without specifying which one to use, or in which proportion to apply to all of the methods, a single mapping to IQ is not possible.

Warhammer 40,000 Roleplay - Each individual RPG uses a different calculation: Dark Heresy (2d10+20), Rogue Trader (2d10+25 modified by Origin Path), Deathwatch (2d10+30), Black Crusade (2d10+25 or 2d10+30). Since they are all part of the same setting, the measures for IQ cannot be derived without knowing the relative population proportions for each character type. But note that a straight 2d10+20 score has been covered above for Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay.
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Subscribe sub options Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:58 pm
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paz AKA Matt Lewis
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Quote:
Other editions of Dungeons & Dragons and Pathfinder - There are several different methods of generating ability scores. Each of these gives different median values and standard deviations. Without specifying which one to use, or in which proportion to apply to all of the methods, a single mapping to IQ is not possible.

I think anything other than 3d6 (e.g. 4d6 drop lowest) is meant to generate 'heroic' stats, as the PCs are supposed to be hardy and intrepid adventurers, not your average person in a mundane existence. It's assumed that the general population are still on the 3d6 curve.
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  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:38 pm
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Young & Lawful Good
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parrais wrote:
Quote:
Other editions of Dungeons & Dragons and Pathfinder - There are several different methods of generating ability scores. Each of these gives different median values and standard deviations. Without specifying which one to use, or in which proportion to apply to all of the methods, a single mapping to IQ is not possible.

I think anything other than 3d6 (e.g. 4d6 drop lowest) is meant to generate 'heroic' stats, as the PCs are supposed to be hardy and intrepid adventurers, not your average person in a mundane existence. It's assumed that the general population are still on the 3d6 curve.

Indeed. But if you say 1 in 1000 people have heroic stats, for example, then it does have some impact on the standard deviation. Anyhow, 3d6 was covered above so I'm happy that D&D is included.

Fun fact: the requirement for Mensa entry is an IQ of at least 130.82. That's an Int of 17 or 18 in D&D, 18 in BRP, and 40 in WFRP!
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  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:53 pm
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Shanya Almafeta
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In GURPS, the concensus on the SJG board seems to be that one standard deviation is 1.5 points of IQ... meaning your PC with an IN of 16 is four standard deviations above average, possible but only just.
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  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:03 pm
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Melissa Gay
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I am... intrigued that it's rare to get an Intelligence roll that's anywhere near the IQ of the typical game geek.

Hey, guys, we're all HEROES!!!!
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  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 7:20 pm
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Shanya Almafeta
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Melissa Gay wrote:
I am... intrigued that it's rare to get an Intelligence roll that's anywhere near the IQ of the typical game geek.

Hey, guys, we're all HEROES!!!!


It's a little terrifying to think that the average RPG gamer group, with funding and the correctly applied madness, could make their own Science Squad.
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  • Posted Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:37 pm
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Neil Carr
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How about with Pathfinder where you roll 3d6 and the with humans you can add +2 to one ability score?

You've got a situation where the range expands to 3 through 20, but a result of 19 or 20 is reaching only a subset of the population.
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  • Posted Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:37 am
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Aleksander R. Nordgarden Rødner
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Hey Stelio,

Great stuff, I love it!

I would like to know what you mean when you say "plus or minus X standard deviations", though...
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  • Posted Fri Aug 12, 2011 9:30 am
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echoota wrote:
How about with Pathfinder where you roll 3d6 and the with humans you can add +2 to one ability score?

You've got a situation where the range expands to 3 through 20, but a result of 19 or 20 is reaching only a subset of the population.

Yes, this can't be easily analysed without making an assumption about the relative population sizes. If you have figures for what proportion of the population is human, and of the humans what proportion add the +2 to Intelligence, then I can whip you up a set of numbers.
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  • Posted Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:46 pm
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razumny wrote:
I would like to know what you mean when you say "plus or minus X standard deviations", though...

An excellent question! An explanation of variance and standard deviation will come in a later blog post. I always expected to do these in a rambling out-of-order way. Ultimately as time passes there should be enough posts that I reach the point of being able to explain terminology by pointing folks towards earlier articles.

So the answer to your question will come, but not yet. A brief answer for you is that standard deviation is a measure of how spread out a set of data is, with a low number indicating that the data set mostly lies very close to the mean. (I'll add this to the glossary...)
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  • Posted Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:49 pm
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This whole post is based on the assumption that
Intelligence = IQ

or at least

IQ = f ( Intelligence) where f is linear function

In most RPGs Intelligence is a stat much broader than simply IQ. It's also true for real life, unless someones settles for a definition of Intelligence equal to IQ.

The second part I don't like about this is RPG progression. In many games characters progress and improve. There are no "hardwritten" barriers on attributes so even someone with relatively low intelligence can become a Wizard (I will stick with Warhammer for the purpose of this exxample) and progress through this life path. In effect he can greatly improve his intelligence score and - in fact - a bonus of +30 is possible.
In effect a rather dump person of Intelligence 22 or IQ 67 can improve greatly to Integlligence score of 52 and IQ > 170. This kind of improvement is simply not possible for a human being, especially in the Old World. Also someone with starting Intelligence 35-40 who will buy full +40 progression (I think there is at least one profession with it) will end with Intelligence 75-80 which will translate to IQ > 200?

It's interesting to read but I don't think it's too useful or used in game development at all.

BTW: Isn't the formula for at least Warhammer wrong?
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  • Posted Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:11 am
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nimdil wrote:
This whole post is based on the assumption that
Intelligence = IQ

Yes, I agree. But I don't think that's wrong. IQ really is meant to measure the same thing as an Intelligence stat in an RPG. What I think is wrong is the way IQ is measured in real life.

The various current tests can only measure a fraction of what a mind is truly capable of, and many of our mental aptitudes are difficult to objectively measure. Therefore IQ tests are a poor tool for their intended use. But as an abstract measure, the idea of IQ is objectively sound.

Role-playing games with known probability distributions for Intelligence offer a rare opportunity to correctly map directly to IQ in its pure form as per its definition. But mapping an RPG's Intelligence stat to the approximate IQ derived from an IQ test is, I agree, a flawed notion.

nimdil wrote:
The second part I don't like about this is RPG progression. In many games characters progress and improve.

Ah, yes. I didn't take that into account here. You are right, both in that skews the resultant distribution of Intelligence, and that it is an unrealistic mechanic for an RPG that claims to simulate reality.

nimdil wrote:
It's interesting to read but I don't think it's too useful or used in game development at all.

Yes indeed! Interesting, but not useful. That's pretty much exactly where I was aiming. laugh


nimdil wrote:
BTW: Isn't the formula for at least Warhammer wrong?
I thought it looked dodgy, but my results were all numerically correct. It seemed to me that the ratio of standard deviations should have been the other way around, and indeed that is the case. When checking I neglected to scrutinise my Excel formulae closely enough to realise that I had allowed for that and switched some terms already. Anyhow... fixed now! Thank you!
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  • Posted Wed Aug 17, 2011 4:50 pm
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